The IMF has improved its forecast for Russia’s GDP growth to 2.2%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Russia’s GDP growth to be 2.2% in 2023. About it it says in the organization’s report.

The IMF improved its July forecast by 0.7 percentage points, then the organization expected the Russian economy to grow by 1.5% by the end of 2023. At the same time, the IMF lowered its expectations for 2024, now the organization predicts Russian GDP growth by 1 .1% (-0.2 p.p.).

The report notes that the country’s acceleration in economic growth reflects “significant fiscal stimulus, strong investment and robust consumption amid a tight labor market.”

In addition, the IMF forecasts that inflation in Russia will be 5.3% in 2023, after 13.8% in 2022 (according to fund estimates). At the same time, the organization expects inflation to accelerate in 2024 – to 6.3%. Unemployment in Russia will decrease in 2023 to 3.3% (from 3.9% in 2022), the report shows. In 2024, the figure is expected to continue to decline to 3.1%.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that over the next three years the Russian economy will grow at a rate above 2% per year. He noted that fiscal policy is being implemented based on “fairly favorable” macroeconomic conditions. At the same time, we need to be prepared for different scenarios, he added.

On September 22, during a government meeting, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov said that Russian GDP growth in 2023 will be 2.8%, in 2024 – 2.3%. Going forward, the growth forecast is just over 2% per year. At the end of August, Siluanov assumed that the Russian economy would grow by 2.5% or more at the end of the current year.

In September, the Ministry of Economic Development increased inflation forecast in 2023 in Russia from 5.3% in the April version to 7.5%. As the ministry explained, the change in the forecast is due to the volatility of the ruble. Reshetnikov earlier statedthat inflation will slow down to 4.5% by the end of 2024, and reach 4% in 2025.

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