The Russian federal budget deficit at the end of this year will be less than forecast and will amount to just over 1% of GDP, said Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov in interview Asharq News Bloomberg TV channel.
“Despite all the restrictions and challenges, instability in the global economy, the finances of the Russian Federation feel stable. The budget deficit figures are lower than we expected, and this year we estimate the budget deficit to be around one percent, which is lower than the planned 2%,” he said.
In 2024, as well as 2025-2026. The Ministry of Finance plans the Russian budget deficit at a level below 1% of GDP, the minister added. The Russian economy will grow by 2.8% by the end of the year, he noted.
According to the current budget for 2023-2025, the budget deficit in 2023 will be 2.9 trillion rubles. (2% of GDP). In July, Siluanov, in an interview with the Argumenty i Fakty newspaper, said that the budget deficit at the end of the year could amount to 2–2.5% of GDP. At the same time, already in early September, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin noted that a steady course towards positive changes allows us to count on the execution of the federal budget this year with a deficit at the level of the initial forecast of 2% of GDP.
According to the draft budget, federal treasury revenues in 2024 will be will amount to 35 trillion rubles. (19.4% of GDP), expenses – 36.6 trillion rubles. (20.4% of GDP). Thus, the budget for next year is drawn up with a deficit of 1.6 trillion rubles. According to the Cabinet of Ministers, non-oil and gas revenues will be twice as high as oil and gas revenues. RUB 36.6 trillion – this is the maximum projected amount of spending in 2024. Mishustin explained it by a significant increase in funding for measures to implement the President’s message to the Federal Assembly.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Energy, in 2023, Russian GDP growth will be about 2.8%, and in 2024 – 2.3 percentage points. It is assumed that the price of Brent oil in 2023 will be $83.5 per barrel. In 2025, the figure will rise to $85 per barrel, and by 2026 it will drop to $76. Export prices for Russian oil will remain at $70 per barrel. According to the forecast, by the end of 2023 the ruble will strengthen at around 94 rubles/$, in 2024–2026. – at the level of 90-92 rubles/$. It is expected that inflation growth will slow down to 4.5% by the end of 2024, and reach 4% in 2025.