The Russian economy received a new impetus for growth in September, the report says. newsletter Central Bank analysts “What are the trends saying?”
“Judging by current data, in September the Russian economy received a new growth impulse, partly related to the increased ruble revenue of exporters,” the materials say.
Analysts emphasize that tightening monetary policy has not yet had a significant impact on key indicators of economic activity. At the same time, against the backdrop of the ongoing active expansion of corporate and retail lending, domestic demand is further fueled. The stability of the indicator is also facilitated by the growth of real wages, caused by increased demand for labor and “limited opportunities to satisfy it.”
Due to high domestic demand, economic growth is ensured by trade and manufacturing. Production is stabilizing due to an increase in natural gas supplies, which compensate for the restriction in oil exports.
Previously, Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia Alexey Zabotkin statedthat the growth rate of the Russian economy in the third quarter, adjusted for seasonality, will be close to the results of the first and second quarters. In the fourth quarter, as the recovery momentum ends, growth rates are likely to slow down somewhat, he warned.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, in turn, noted that over the next three years the Russian economy will grow at a rate above 2% per year. Siluanov noted that budget policy is being implemented based on “fairly favorable” macroeconomic conditions. At the same time, we need to be prepared for different scenarios, he added. The minister pointed to “economic and financial fragmentation, structural imbalance” and sanctions that Western countries continue to impose on the Russian Federation.
On September 22, during a government meeting, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov said that Russian GDP growth in 2023 will be 2.8%, in 2024 – 2.3%. Going forward, the growth forecast is just over 2% per year. At the end of August, Siluanov assumed that the Russian economy would grow by 2.5% or more at the end of the current year.