Analysts surveyed by the Central Bank raised their GDP forecast for 2023

Analysts expect the country’s economy to grow 2.5% this year, following 2.3% in a September survey. This conclusion was reached by economists who took part in macroeconomic survey Central Bank.

It is noted that in 2024-2026. Analysts expect GDP growth to slow to 1.5% per year.

Inflation in Russia by the end of 2023 will be 7%, economists expect. This is 0.7 percentage points higher than expected a month ago. The unemployment rate this year, according to the expectations of survey participants, will be 3.1%, and the growth of nominal wages will be 12.3%. Analysts’ forecast for the dollar exchange rate was raised from 85 to 86 rubles. this year and from 89.9 to 94 rubles. – in 2024. The price of oil will be Urals will be $64/barrel. this year (in September it was forecast $61/barrel) and $72/barrel. – in 2024 (was $65/barrel).

The survey was conducted October 13-17, its results are the median of the forecasts of 28 economists from various organizations. If the respondent gave his expectations as an interval, then its middle was taken into account for the calculation. The next survey will be conducted in early December.

Earlier, Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Zabotkin admitted that to return inflation to the target of 4% in 2024, tightening monetary policy would be required. Annual inflation in Russia will reach its peak value in the spring-summer of next year, the regulator expects.

On August 15, the Central Bank raised the key rate by 3.5 percentage points to 12%. The reason was increased inflationary pressure and inflationary expectations, which are pressured by exchange rate dynamics. On September 15, the regulator again raised the key rate – by 1 percentage point to 13%. The Central Bank will keep the key rate at an increased level for “quite a long time,” Central Bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina told reporters that day. The regulator also raised inflation forecast from 5-6.5% to 6-7% at the end of 2023.

At a government meeting dedicated to budget priorities for 2024-2026, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov gave a forecast according to which inflation growth will slow down to 4.5% by the end of 2024, and will reach 4% in 2025.

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